Zet Je Schrap - 2025 zal niet op je wachten...

Riku • January 4, 2025
Ga je uitcashen wanneer de markt je een gouden exit ticket geeft?

2025 wordt het jaar van de beslissingen voor cryptobeleggers. Ga je uitcashen wanneer de markt je een gouden exit ticket geeft of hou je vol voor een tweede piek in de charts die misschien nooit komt? Laten we het eens hebben over trading cycli, vrijheid en de harde realiteit van valkuilen in de markt. 


Het idee van een dubbele top* in 2025 klinkt lekker. Een beetje te gezellig. Als een verhaaltje voor het slapengaan voor traders die bang zijn winst te nemen. Maar de ongezoute harde waarheid is anders: de crypotomarkt geeft geen reet om je fantasieën. Ze kauwt ze op, spuugt ze uit en gaat verder. Als je er niet klaar voor bent, blijf je naar de charts staren, met je zakken in je hand, jezelf afvragend waarom je niet geluisterd hebt.

*
Een dubbele top in trading is een chart-patroon dat eruitziet als een “M”. Het gebeurt wanneer een koers stijgt naar een hoogtepunt (de eerste top), terugvalt, dan opnieuw probeert te stijgen maar stopt in de buurt van dezelfde hoogte (de tweede top). Dit geeft aan dat de markt worstelt nog hoger te gaan, wat vaak een signaal is dat de prijs daarna zou kunnen dalen. Zie het als twee keer een plafond raken - het is een waarschuwing dat de trend kan omkeren.


Iedereen houdt ervan om cycli te herhalen; 2013, 2017, 2021. Ze klinken hetzelfde, dus de uitkomsten moeten identiek zijn, toch? Markttoppen herhalen zich niet perfect en als je je hele portefeuille inzet op een voorspelbare tweede piek in Q4 2025, speel je eigenlijk Russische roulette met je vrijheid. Dit is waarom. Decennialang zijn markttoppen in Q2 of Q4 beland. Q2 is niet willekeurig, het is de 'Fear Of Missing Out' opeenstapeling van een gepasseerde-Q4 rally, aangewakkerd door kleine traders/investeerders die in januari wakker worden met “nieuw jaar, nieuwe portefeuille” energie.
Ze kopen omdat iedereen koopt, jagen op groene candlesticks in trading grafieken en drijven zo de spiraal hoger. Q2-pieken zijn vaak luid, snel en euforisch.Maar ze zijn ook de perfecte valstrik.

Q4? Natuurlijk, misschien heb je geluk met een tweede top, maar geluk hebben is geen strategie. Stel je voor dat je volhoudt, rekenend op een nieuwe rally. Wat als die niet komt? Wat als de paniek en de selloff toeslaat voordat je je winst gepakt hebt? Tegen de tijd dat je je realiseert dat jehet mis had, is het halverwege 2026, Bitcoin is mogelijk een dikke 80% gedaald, je ticket naar vrijheid is het raam uit gewaaid en je bent weer terug bij af. Het hoeft niet zo te gaan.

Dit is het spel.
Je weet al wat er gebeurt. In Q4 2024 begon de rally. Tegen de tijd dat we Q2 2025 bereiken, is de markt zeer waarschijnlijk in overdrive en glipt ondertussen het slimme geld stilletjes de achterdeur uit terwijl iedereen “Lambo” en "To The Moon" schreeuwt. Dan breekt de zomer aan, alles vertraagt. September verwoest portefeuilles. Oktober lijkt alsof je het toch gaat redden.

Het gaat er niet om de top perfect te timen, het gaat erom het ritme te begrijpen.
Als je tegen Q2 geen grote winsten hebt genomen, dan ben je gewoon aan het gokken. 2026 is ook geen mysterie. Midterm US-verkiezingsjaren zijn al tientallen jaren waardeloos. Bitcoin is gemiddeld -66% gezakt in deze periodes en dan hebben we het nog niet eens over externe schokgolven. ETF's, AI, meme coins etcetera... Helemaal niets verandert aan het feit dat de cyclus iedereen opeet die te lang blijft. Ik heb het zelf doorgemaakt.

Vrijheid is het doel, niet de Charts. Laten we eens eerlijk zijn, waarom investeer je in crypto? Vrijheid. Onafhankelijkheid. Je bent hier om een leven op te bouwen dat niet afhankelijk is van de 9-tot-5 sleur, je wil ontsnappen uit het hamsterwiel van onze maatschappij. Je bent hier niet om meegezogen te worden in dezelfde valstrikken die elke vier jaar beginnende investeerders de das omdoen.

Dus pak winst wanneer de markt je een uitweg biedt.
Q2 2025 kan je ticket zijn naar een levensveranderende exit. Aarzel niet om wat winst te spreiden in vastgoed, goud, grondstoffen, zelfs in  contanten.

Als je wacht op de mythische dubbele top en die komt er nooit, vraag jezelf dan af: was het het waard?


Als je dit artikel leuk vond, deel het dan op grote schaal op sociale media om ons te helpen een breder publiek te bereiken dat meer wil weten over crypto- en Web3-technologieën. 


Ook als je vragen of feedback hebt horen we graag van je!

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